Mackenzie Blackwood's Contract Solidifies Trade Decision
Mackenzie Blackwood got paid.
After playing four games with the Colorado Avalanche, Mackenzie Blackwood signed a five-year extension worth $26,250,000 ($5.25 million AAV).
This extension helps to solidify General Manager Mike Grier's decision to trade Blackwood on December 9th. While Grier did want to try to re-sign Blackwood, he mentioned that Blackwood had priced himself out of the Sharks budget.
While the Sharks have all the cap space in the world (around $40 million heading into a $92.5 million projected salary cap for 2025-26), signing Blackwood to a five-year deal worth over $5.25 million a year would have been a terrible decision.
Looking at the history of recent goalies in the same age range as Blackwood (28) who have signed similar contracts has had mixed results:
Robin Lehner (29): five years at $5 million AAV with Vegas Golden Knights, October 2020
Lehner signed a five-year extension after getting traded to Vegas by the Chicago Blackhawks. Lehner posted good numbers with Vegas in two-plus seasons (66 regular season games) .910 save%, a 2.61 GAA, and over 10 goals saved above expected.
The problem is that Lehner hasn't played a game since April 2022. Lehner dealt with many injuries at the end, which could be a cautionary tale for Blackwood, who has also dealt with injuries throughout his career.
Darcy Kuemper (32): five years at $5.25 million AAV with Washington Capitals, July 2022
While Kuemper was older than Blackwood when he signed, the contract is the same. Fresh off a Stanley Cup run with the Avalanche, the Capitals thought they had solved their goaltending issues with Kuemper. In his first season with the Caps, Keumper posted a .908 save%, 2.87 GAA, and 8.8 goals saved above expected.
But in 2023-24, things fell apart for Kuemper, who saw his save% drop to .890, a 3.33 GAA, and -4.8 goals saved above expected in 33 games. He lost his job to Charlie Lindgren and was eventually traded in the 2024 offseason for Pierre-Luc Dubois. While Kuemper's numbers have improved with the LA Kings, it was a terrible contract for the Capitals.
Tristan Jarry (28): five years at $5.38 million AAV with Pittsburg Penguins, July 2023
After signing an extension, Tristan Jarry posted some interesting numbers for the Penguins. He posted a .903 save%, 2.91 GAA, with only 2.6 goals saved above expected in 2023-24. He did have a career-high six shutouts. This season has been very uneven for Jarry, who currently is sporting a .885 save% with 3.47 GAA and a -6.5 goals saved above expected in 16 games!
Trade rumors circled Jarry early in the season, and it looks like a long shot for Jarry to see the end of his contract with the Penguins as Joel Blomqvist looks to be the future in net for the Penguins.
Philipp Grubauer (29): six years at $5.9 million AAV with Seattle Kraken, July 2021
After posting seven shutouts to go along with a .922 save%, 1.95 GAA, and 5.2 goals saved above expected, Grubauer cashed in on the expansion Seattle Kraken.
It has not gone well.
Grubauer has posted a .892 save%, 3.05 GAA, and only four shutouts in 143 games with the Kraken. While playing with a (normal) expansion team doesn't do a goalie any favors. It has been a struggle for Grubauer, and he could be a buyout candidate with Joey Daccord's contract kicking in next season.
While there are plenty of success stories for goalies signing contracts in this range, the San Jose Sharks have their heir-apparent goalie of the future in Yaroslav Askarov.
With Askarov (who turns 23 in June) signed for two seasons after this at $2 million AAV and presumably looking for a long term extension in three years, it would not make sense to commit such a long and expensive contract to a goalie who would be losing starts.
Mike Grier sold high on one of his best assets before Blackwood demanded a contract that didn't make sense for the Sharks. Turning a 6th-round pick into a 2nd-round pick and an interesting player in Nikolai Kovalenko (plus if Alexandar Georgiev nets the Sharks anything).
While Blackwood should help turn around the woeful goaltending for the Colorado Avalanche this season, the most likely outcome is that this contract does not age well, especially given Blackwood's injury history and how the Avalanche ride their goalies.